Sites I Like
A curated collection of websites, tools, and resources that inspire our work and provide valuable insights into forecasting, markets, and analysis.
Prediction Markets
Primary Platforms:
- Polymarket - The largest prediction market platform with high liquidity and diverse event coverage.
- Manifold Markets - Community-driven prediction market with play money and innovative question formats.
- Metaculus - Collaborative forecasting platform focused on long-term predictions and community scoring.
- PredictIt - Political prediction market with real money trading and academic research partnerships.
Data & Analytics:
- Election Betting Odds - Aggregated political betting odds from multiple sources.
- OddsChecker - Comprehensive odds comparison across traditional betting markets.
- Kalshi - CFTC-regulated event contracts on economic and political outcomes.
Research & Analysis:
- LessWrong - Rationality community with excellent forecasting and decision-making content.
- Astral Codex Ten - Scott Alexander's blog with thoughtful analysis on predictions and rationality.
- Marginal Revolution - Economics blog by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok with market insights.