Introducing the 'Mamdani Index'

By Doug Crescenzi - 31 Jul 2025

Tracking the 2025 NYC Mayoral Election

The Mamdani Index tracks Zohran Mamdani's prospects in the 2025 NYC Mayoral Election, providing a comprehensive view of his socialist campaign's viability across the five boroughs.

Current Index: 45.3%

Market Analysis

Polymarket currently shows a 79% chance of Mamdani winning the election, with significant variation across NYC's boroughs:

Borough-Level Probabilities

  • Brooklyn: 95% chance of winning
  • Manhattan: 86% chance
  • Queens: 72% chance
  • The Bronx: 67% chance
  • Staten Island: 18% chance

Campaign Platform

Mamdani represents a socialist platform with policies that could reshape NYC's economic landscape:

Key Policy Proposals

  • Rent freezes across all five boroughs
  • Punitive taxes on high earners and corporations
  • Wealth redistribution programs

Economic Impact Assessment

Our analysis suggests potential wealth exodus from NYC if these policies are implemented, particularly affecting:

  • High-net-worth individuals
  • Corporate headquarters
  • Real estate markets
  • Tax revenue projections

Political Endorsement Tracker

The Index also tracks endorsement probabilities from key Democratic figures:

  • Obama: 9-10% chance of endorsement
  • Kamala Harris: 12-10% chance
  • Kathy Hochul: 37% chance
  • Chuck Schumer: 30% chance

Investment Implications

For fund managers and investors, key considerations include:

  • Real estate exposure in NYC markets
  • Municipal bond risk assessments
  • Corporate relocation trends
  • Tax policy hedging strategies

Methodology

The Mamdani Index combines:

  • Prediction market odds
  • Polling data triangulation
  • Demographic voting patterns
  • Historical precedent analysis
  • Social media sentiment tracking

The Mamdani Index will be updated weekly through the 2025 NYC mayoral election. For real-time updates, follow @adjacent_news.