Forecasting Library
A curated collection of forecasting methodologies, tools, and resources for prediction market enthusiasts and professional forecasters.
Methodologies
Core Techniques:
- Superforecasting Principles: Techniques from Philip Tetlock's research on improving prediction accuracy through structured thinking and probabilistic reasoning.
- Wisdom of Crowds: Aggregation methods for combining multiple forecasts to improve overall accuracy and reduce individual biases.
- Bayesian Updating: Statistical frameworks for updating beliefs as new information becomes available, essential for dynamic forecasting.
- Base Rate Analysis: Using historical frequencies and reference class forecasting to anchor predictions in empirical data.
Market Integration:
- Odds Conversion: Tools and formulas for converting between different probability formats (decimal, fractional, American odds).
- Market Efficiency Analysis: Methods for identifying mispriced events and arbitrage opportunities across prediction platforms.
- Liquidity Assessment: Techniques for evaluating market depth and the reliability of crowd-sourced predictions.